Today’s post is by regular contributor, Richard Jurin who, before his retirement, led the Environmental Studies programme at the University of Northern Colorado, where he launched a degree in Sustainability Studies. His academic interests are environmental worldviews and understanding barriers to sustainability. As ever, with our blogs, the views expressed are not necessarily shared by NAEE.
We recognize our global ecological problems, yet still cannot comes to terms with the solutions needed. We obviously cannot keep exponential growth in a finite world, but our collective will remains dominated by a system that demands obedience to this idea. We are also handicapped by linear thinking. If a problem was bad last year, then this year it should only be a little more bad when we continue the behavior that creates the problem. The consequences of exponential growth seem to elude us. We understand it when it comes to financial dealings, but ignore it when it comes to natural systems.
Exponential or logarithmic growth curves start out slow, climbs exponentially then tails out to steady state – think of bacterial growth on a Petrie dish. Our economic models are predicated upon exponential growth, yet all growth reaches steady state as resources become limiting. A forest ecosystem grows to the limits of its resources and then enters a dynamic steady state. New growth occurs as death occurs with the system, yet the forest is always thriving with energy endlessly flowing through the system. Many consider our human exponential stage of economic growth is reaching a steady state, but what about the resources that keep exponential economic growth going? What does steady state look like our current model of economics?
Our whole economic system is predicated upon the notion of endless growth, so we will keep using more and more resources at exponentially growing rates of usage (and depletion). China had a policy promoting GDP growth of 10% GR, and Japan goes into a funk when its GDP is merely 3%. Since the 1980s, we in the more developed countries (MDCs) went from being consumers to becoming hyper-consumers. No longer the small fishing boat to enjoy the lake, but a big power boat! 15% of the MDCs currently use about about 80% of the world’s resources, and the rest of the world’s Less Developed Countries (LDCs) population (85%) want their time to feed at the trough of consumerism. (Numbers are approximate for emphasis before anyone takes me to task). Global population is growing, and global resource use is growing and reaching limits. Despite the many doom and gloom environmental speakers, the global population seems unconcerned despite the verbiage given by politicians about these limits at their endless economic summits to keep the global economy growing. It all amounts to what Mark Twain called the ‘Lie of Silent Assertion’ – this lie omits the truth and the lie by remaining quiet in the situation. Our economic and political leaders tell this majestic lie of economic growth and they make it their sacred duty to carefully guard and propagate the lie. In other words, we don’t talk about the Elephant(s) in the room even if it is mentioned a lot.
The exponential function doesn’t care about our assumptions and lies of assertion that we can keep growing endlessly. We have lots of doomsday prophets telling us the end is nigh, but our technology has still managed to keep us afloat – for now. It is unclear as to how we can allow everyone on Earth a European Standard of Living (SOL) with our current systems. So, let’s look at the possibility of finding a steady state model that we can use – our natural system is one such model. Our problem arises with the concept of growth and sustainability in connection with modern economic business thinking and planning. A lot hinges on growth and sustainability. Is there such a thing as steady state growth? If there is no economic growth then is the alternative stagnation or death? Can a thriving human community exist in a context of economic stasis? No small questions here. The complexities have been debated for many decades now since the lexicon of sustainability burst onto the scene in the 1980s. Much of the fear comes from imagining what a steady state human society would look like. Groups like Steady State Manchester have made inroads to begin steady state planning, but what exactly would a steady state society look like? And more importantly, how do we educate people to accept something less than exponential growth on which consumerism is predicated?
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Richard can be contacted at: richard.jurin@risebroadband.net